If you received our most recent print edition of Bicycling Trade (Dec/Jan/Feb) you would have seen that it included our first ever ebike dealers’ guide.
We’re going to post this in three instalments over the next three weekly newsletters, starting with our overview article, following by how to sell and service ebikes and finally details of all the brands currently available, plus a couple of later additions to the print listing.
Ebikes Now
There’s no question that not all Australian bicycle dealers like ebikes. Some dealers have been burnt by early, cheap products sold by small, sometimes dodgy wholesalers who offered little or no product backup or technical support.
Other dealers, sometimes ex pro riders, think that ebikes are ‘cheating’, ‘not a real bike’ or ‘look stupid’.
Here are the brutal facts. Just because you own a bike shop, most consumers don’t really care what you like or don’t like.
If they see a product that interests them, whether that be online or out on the road or trail, they’ll do some research, find out where they can buy it and make their purchase.
Fortunately Australian bicycle dealers who think that ebikes will just go away like the latest fad are in the minority. Almost 80% of dealers who completed our recent Bicycling Trade Dealer Survey thought otherwise.
When asked, ‘What is your opinion about the impact that ebikes will have on Australian bicycle dealers over the next three years?’ only 2.97% said, ‘They’re over-rated / irrelevant to our market.’ 13.56% said they’d have very little impact, 38.86% said a moderate impact, 28.81% a significant impact and 9.75% tipped they’d be a game changer, whilst 8.05% ticked ‘Other’ and gave a range of specific comments mainly about challenges the new market faces here.
With all of this in mind we decided it was time to publish a comprehensive guide. Our first ebike dealer’s guide will give you an overview of the market.
What’s available now?
How much does it cost?
Plus we’ll share some expert advice from leading Australian retailers about selling and servicing ebikes.
HISTORY
The first ebike was patented in the USA in 1895. That’s not a misprint. It was 119 years ago, with several other patents during the late 1890s.
So why did it take another 110 years for the ebike to gain popularity?
In a word, technology.
Early ebikes had heavy, bulky, lead acid batteries. It’s only since lithium ion batteries became affordable that ebikes have really taken off. Simultaneously, electronic control systems and motor drive systems have also become smaller, lighter, quieter and smoother, with most of the improvements coming over recent years as the global ebike market as grown and the money invested into new product development has grown exponentially.
EBIKE CATEGORIES
PEDELECS
‘Pedelecs’ measure the amount of power being applied through the pedals by the rider many times per second and boost that power by a defined percentage, depending upon what level the rider has set via the bike’s control unit.
They’re limited to 250 watts of motor power output, which cuts out at 25 kph.
Through lobbying by the Cycling Promotion Fund (CPF) and others, over recent years all Australian states have adopted the European pedelec standard EN15194.
This has opened the floodgates for the many mid to high end pedelecs that are now entering the Australian market.
Work is now underway to create a new global ISO pedelec standard, which will quite probably be compatible with the current European standard.
THROTTLE CONTROLLED
‘Throttle Controlled’ or ‘Power Assist’ ebikes can have a maximum power output of 200 watts, but the power is controlled independent of the pedals, so the rider does not have to pedal at all if they don’t want to. There is no speed restriction on power assist ebikes, but depending upon the bike, rider size, road surface and terrain, the bike will struggle to exceed 25 kph without pedalling assistance.
This standard has been approved in Australia for many years, and until pedelecs began emerging over the past few years, represented almost all ebikes sold here.
Most throttle controlled ebikes are lower cost than pedelecs and sourced from China where they’re sold by the millions.
SPEED PEDELECS
In Europe one of the fastest growing ebike categories is speed pedelecs, often called s-pedelecs. These bikes have up to 500 watt motors and provide power assisted pedalling up to 45 kilometres per hour. In Europe s-pedelecs require road registration, rear view mirrors and riders must wear helmets, unlike other European cyclists.
Currently Australian regulations do not recognise s-pedelecs at all and there is no interest from governments to add this category.
However some leading Australian ebike retailers would like to see our regulations changed to recognise s-pedelecs. They say that our vast suburban sprawl means that the current 25 kph power assist limit on standard pedelecs is too slow for serious long distance commuting.
OUTSIDE REGULATIONS
Then there are ebikes which don’t need to comply with any power or speed restrictions. They can still be legally sold and ridden here, provided it’s only upon private land.
Best known of these ebikes is the Melbourne manufactured Stealth Electric Bikes which are exported worldwide. These have power outputs of 3,700 watts or 5,200 watts and are more like trail motorcycles with pedals. They have lightning acceleration and can reach 80 kph. In fact one model only has foot pegs, making it a pure electric motorcycle, which is another growing category of electric vehicles beyond the scope of this article.
Theresa Mischkulnig, Sales Manager for Stealth Electric Bikes says that they have about 10 full time staff making their bikes, which would make them the largest bicycle manufacturer in Australia. The UK and USA are their largest export markets, with about 30 to 40 bikes per month heading overseas. The bikes retail for $8,500 for the S37 model and $10,400 for the B52.
OTHER E-VEHICLES
Also beyond the scope of this article, there is a vast range of electric skateboards, electric scooters, mobility chairs for the disabled or elderly and light electric vehicles (LEVs).
Whilst we’re not going to cover these, some of these products are already being sold through Australian bicycle shops and will no doubt grow over time.
For example Micro Scooters, which have extensive distribution through Australian bicycle dealers, have an e-scooter in their range.
Meanwhile at the other end of the scale LEVs are filling the gap between bicycles and cars.
Companies such as Organic Transit are making vehicles that include pedals, but look more like a small car than a bicycle. They appear to be finding strong consumer demand for their products.
RETROFIT KITS
In addition to purpose built ebikes, there are a variety of retrofit systems that turn any regular bike into an ebike. Some of these kits are available in Australia listed in our guide.
Most of these involve swapping the existing rear wheel for a new wheel which contains a hub motor and then attaching a battery and control unit to the bike.
There are some models, not yet widely available, that require no additional modifications to the bike as the battery, motor and all control systems are contained within the rear hub, controlled wirelessly via a smart phone app.
‘HOT RODDING’
We’re not going to go into great technical detail here, other than to acknowledge that there are third party companies manufacturing and selling various devices designed to boost the power output, maximum speed or other performance characteristics of ebikes.
A quick Google search will also reveal suppliers of such products plus a range of instructional videos telling you how to do it.
None of the major manufacturers endorse these products and services. It has been described as a game of cat and mouse, not unlike more broad computer security issues, where the ‘hot rodders’ come up with a new device and the major drive system brands then upgrade their hardware or software so that the new device won’t work.
Any modification will also void the warranty on that drive system.
We’ve also heard various allegations over the years that certain brands or models of ebikes currently imported into Australia already exceed the respective 200 watt throttle controlled or 250 watt pedelec power limits in their standard configurations.
The bottom line is that ebikes are a new market in Australia. It will take a while for products, suppliers and regulations to all become better established.
If a customer requested that their bike shop modify an ebike to boost its power or speed and then had an accident or was accused of having an illegal bike, some have suggested that the legal liability would be upon the customer, as the user of the bicycle. However is it worth the stress and risk for the dealer?
As a dealer if you stick to well known, reputable suppliers and don’t do unauthorised modifications for your customers, your risk of being caught out by regulations should be minimal.
ROAD BIKES AND ‘MECHANICAL DOPING’
The technology to hide small motors, batteries and control units within carbon fibre road racing bicycles has already been available for years.
There were only rumours and innuendo until the Belgian Under 23 female competitor Femke Van den Driessche was famously caught with a bike containing a hidden motor at the 2016 Cyclocross World Championships.
There are also claims of electromagnetic wheels which are an even more sophisticated form of ‘mechanical doping’.
Clearly in competition, this is cheating, but what about every day road riders who just want to keep up with their mates or be able to get over a tough climb?
At this year’s Eurobike Show Italian high end road brand Cipollini unveiled a stealth road bike, that if it had not been labelled, would have been hard to distinguish from a regular bike without very close inspection.
Will there be a market for bikes like this? Clearly the technology is already here. It will come down to social etiquette on the road and whether enough consumers decide that it’s acceptable to ride an ebike that doesn’t look like an ebike at all.
WATTS, AMPS, VOLTS DEFINED
The moment you start looking at ebikes you see the terms watts, volts and amps being used to describe their specifications. At the risk of upsetting scientists with imperfect definitions, here’s what these words mean in layman’s terms.
If you think about water flowing through your garden hose, volts describes the pressure of the flow and amperes, or amps for short, describes the volume of the flow.
If you have a fat garden hose and good water pressure you’ll get a powerful flow (watts).
In fact, volts multiplied by amps equals watts. That’s why for example, if you plug in a standard 10 amp household power cord, you can only run domestic appliances up to 2,400 watts. That’s because our standard Australian household voltage of 240 volts multiplied by 10 amps equals 2,400 watts.
That’s why if you need more power, such as for your hot water system or electric oven, they have to run on a separate circuit that can handle more than 10 amps.
Ebikes typically run 36 volt systems although different models range from about 24 volt to 48 volt.
When it comes to ebike batteries, you most commonly see their capacity described in amp hours (Ah) but also sometimes in watt hours (Wh).
A watt-hour equals one watt of power flowing for one hour. To convert from one watt hour to one amp-hour you need to divide by the voltage of the power source. For example if it’s 36 volts 360 watt-hours approximates 10 amp-hours. However it’s only an approximation because the voltage is not constant during discharge of a battery.
An amp-hour equals one amp of current flowing for one hour. So when it comes to ebike battery range, other things being equal the more amp-hours, the further that bike will go before flattening the battery. Small ebike batteries have less than 10 amp-hours and some large ones more than 20 amp-hours. The trade-off is that the batteries with more amp-hours, for any given design or brand, are larger, heavier and more expensive.
By comparison a typical full sized car battery has about 50 amp-hours and being lead-acid they’re cheap, but of course is too big and heavy to put on a bike.
Cheap lead acid batteries’ recharging and usage characteristics are also not as suitable for ebikes as the lithium ion batteries now commonly in use. But as to how long batteries last, to what percentage of their capacity they can be used before recycling and so on, consult your supplier!
FRONT, MID OR REAR MOTOR?
Discussing the relative merits of front, mid or rear mount motors is a commercial and technical minefield as bikes are available in all three formats and of course the various manufacturers will be adamant that their motor position is best.
Because the ebike category is relatively new, designs are also still evolving, but here’s a summary.
FRONT
Having the motor in the front hub is the usually cheapest and simplest position. It also makes it easier to run hub gears in the rear wheel. The main disadvantage is potential loss of traction when the front wheel is unweighted, such as up steep hills. This may not be a problem for a non-performance style bike and a conservative rider, but you won’t find high performance orientated ebikes with front motors.
MID
Mid mount is the location of choice for pedelecs. This position is also important for full suspension mountain bikes as a front or rear hub motor adds to the unsprung weight.
Some mid mount motors present further challenges to mountain bike designers as they require a longer chainstay length and a revised suspension pivot point. Mid mount also allows a standard pair of wheels and wheel changes are just as easily as with a conventional bike.
Mid mount motors are putting their additional power through the chain and rear gears, be they hub or derailleur. So these components are under more strain than with a non electric bike and will wear more rapidly.
REAR
Rear hub motors are better for performance orientated ebikes than front hub motors in terms of traction, but they add to the complexity of removing and refitting the rear wheel when replacing a rear tyre or tube. They avoid putting additional wear on the drivetrain as only the rider’s leg power is going through the chain.
There was a prototype magnetic induction rim motor displayed by Germany company Lightweight at Eurobike in 2015, but no sign of commercial production.
HOW BIG IS THE AUSTRALIAN
EBIKE MARKET?
Unfortunately there are no reliable industry wide statistics about the size of the ebike market in Australia.
As you can read in an interview accompanying this story, Bosch estimates that the current Australian market for pedelecs is somewhere under 15,000 units per year. That’s for all drive systems, not just their own.
Our own estimate, based upon off the record conversations with various importers, is around 8,000 pedelecs per year currently being sold in Australia.
Pedelecs currently range in price from around $3,000 to $10,000. If the average retail price is $4,000 that would put the current market at around $32 million at retail value for 8,000 units.
On top of this are the throttle controlled ebikes. These are even harder to estimate because there are some importers of low end bikes that don’t overlap with the traditional bicycle wholesaler / retailer players at all.
These bikes typically range from $1,500 to $3,000 retail with around $2,000 being most common retail price point. Because they’re so much cheaper, they attract a broader demographic and it’s quite likely that this is the bigger market by volume. If 10,000 units are currently being sold at $2,000 average price that would make a retail market of $20 million per year.
Combining the two categories would give a total market of $52 million per year at retail, which is less than 5% by value of the overall Australian bicycle industry market that exceeds $1 billion.
By volume if the total numbers are currently 18,000 that would constitute only 1.4% of all bicycles currently imported into Australia.
Given that this is such a tiny percentage, why would dealers even want to bother with ebikes at all?
We’ll look at three reasons: growth, profitability, technology.
GROWTH – ACORNS AND OAK TREES
You’ve probably heard the dad joke, ‘How does an elephant climb a tree? It sits on an acorn and waits until spring.’
As we’ve outlined above, the ebike market is tiny in Australia today. But by some estimates it’s growing at about 20% year on year. Meanwhile the regular bike market has been flat for several years and has actually contracted over the past year, as measured by Australian Customs import statistics.
Thanks to the mathematical wonders of compound growth, if any market keeps growing each year, no matter how small it starts, it will soon become much larger.
For example in the mature ebike market of Germany, ebike sales still grew by 11.5% from 2014 to 2015, which represented an increase of 55,000 units from 480,000 to 535,000.
In Holland the ebike market was 223,000 units in 2014 and 276,000 units in 2015, an increase of 24%. The ebike markets of Belgium, France, Spain, Italy and other European countries have all been growing rapidly, but from smaller bases.
Major companies get very interested when they find growth markets. This is why not only existing bicycle industry players such as Shimano are investing heavily into ebike product development, but much larger automotive and electronics companies who until now have virtually ignored the bicycle industry.
All of this R&D and marketing investment will help drive and grow the market, which in turn will attract further investment, and on upwards the virtuous cycle will spiral.
A second key point about the ebike market is that it is attracting new consumers to cycling. An extra 10,000 ebikes sold will not automatically mean 10,000 less regular bikes being sold because many of the new ebike customers either cannot or do not want to ride a regular bicycle.
As Graham Beeforth, Senior Technician at The Electric Bicycle Company summarised it, “We don’t sell bicycles, we sell transport.”
Of course not all ebikes are for transport. Many are for recreation including the new wave of performance orientated e-mountain bikes. But even in this case, customers will include people who might otherwise not be able to make it up a climb or around a certain trail, so they might not otherwise be riding at all.
PROFIT – SHOW ME THE MONEY!
You have to unbox and assemble every bike that you sell. Then it takes space on your showroom floor and then more staff labour time to sell it to a customer.
Once you’ve made the sale most shops typically offer a free 30 day service.
Most of these costs are relatively constant. That is, an expensive bike does not take much more time to assemble, no more space to display and no more time for its 30 day free service than a bike that’s half the price.
An expensive bike will probably take more salesperson time to sell, but overall the ratio of sale costs relative to the sale price will be lower.
Ebikes are expensive, so you have a better chance of making more profit per bike sold.
But the sale is just the start of the equation. We’ve been consistently told by specialist ebike retailers across Australia that their customers ride their ebikes a lot. They wear out brake pads, drive trains, tyres and other parts more quickly and need them replaced more often.
Our recent dealer survey showed that 43% of dealers think that their best profit growth potential over the next three years is through increased repair work. This was by far the highest predicted source of future profit growth.
The more ebikes that are sold, the more likely that this prediction will prove to be correct.
Better still, it’s not just about the bike. As the ebike category booms, P&A companies are also sensing a business opportunity. You can now stock and sell a host of ebike specific products, everything from tyres to components to clothing.
How is ebike clothing different from regular clothing? Because ebike riders go faster with less effort, the clothing is slightly more wind proof and less cooling.
TECHNOLOGY – WHAT’S NEXT?
Ebikes have three additional components to conventional bikes: a battery, an electric motor and a control/display unit.
Control units are a pure electronic device, so their cost is already low and will continue to drop.
Although they are still being refined, highly energy efficient, cost effective electric motors have been around for decades and there is only incremental room for improvement.
Batteries are the key. There are two key metrics for batteries: cost per watt hour and watt hour per kilogram.
Right now batteries are by far the most expensive component on an ebike, with many ebike batteries retailing for well over $1,000. But the cost is falling every year and will almost certainly continue to fall.
The second of these measures is called ‘energy density’. The smaller and lighter a battery can be for a given amount of power storage, the better.
Ebikes of the future will have a longer range, quicker recharge times, be lighter and have more streamlined designs with batteries easily hidden within the frame.
Ebikes have only become commercially viable since the early 2000s when lithium ion batteries became significantly cheaper and more energy dense, as the graph here shows.
This particular graph only extends to 2005. Other research and charts show that the price has more than halved again since 2005 and is predicted to keep falling.
Meanwhile there’s huge R&D money being invested into a range of alternative battery technologies because the financial rewards for whoever comes up with something better than lithium ion will run to many billions of dollars. Ebikes are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to products looking for cheaper, lighter, more energy dense batteries.
In summary, as much improved as today’s ebikes are compared to those of a decade ago, we can expect further rapid improvement over the coming decade.
